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VALUE BET

The Racing App’s Value Bet service is unparalleled in selecting a constant stream of winners at long prices. Underpinning this success are The Racing App’s unique value prices which we provide for every horse, in every race, every day. They are woven into various features within the app and allow you to quickly assess whether a horse is over or underpriced i.e. whether it is good or bad value based on the live odds.
Here are our top five tips for how to make best use of The Racing App to find the value:
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1. Look for the red ‘V’ icon next to a horse
These are The Racing App’s Value Bet selections – the horse in the race who we believe represents the best value from those runners identified as overpriced and who have a strong chance of winning. It won’t necessarily be the horse with the greatest discrepancy between its live odds and our value price, simply because at longer odds the margin for error in assessing the correct price of a horse is greater.
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2. Filter tips by Value Bets
You can view a list of all the Value Bets for the day’s racing simply by tapping ‘Value Bet’ in the legend at the top of The All Tips tab on the Tipsters page. Each of the tip types in the legends acts as a button to filter the list. 
<a href="http://TRA_App/Tips-Screen">View Tips</a>
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3. Compare live odds with our value prices
For quick reference, value prices are displayed in red on the Card tab by default. However, the easiest way to see where the value lies is to switch to the Value tab and use the interactive chart which gives you an at-a-glance comparison plus the % each runner is under or overpriced.
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4. Use Bet Finder to refine your shortlist
Find all value bets at the click of a button using our Bet Finder tool and then refine your list by combining the comprehensive filter options available e.g. tipped by Value + winner on going + distance winner etc. <a href="http://TRA_App/BetFinder-Screen">View Bet Finder</a>
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5. Create your own value prices
In addition to telling you where WE think the value is, The Racing App also allows you to work out your own value prices and identify those horses YOU believe to be overpriced.
The magic happens within our interactive form tool (Computeform Visualiser) which you’ll find under the Form tab on Racecards. Here you can edit the underlying values for each of the factors that affect an upcoming race, before recalculating to replace the default value prices with your own.
To fully understand the potential of this unique tool, it is worth having a deeper understanding of the process by which we arrive at value prices. They are not a matter of gut feel, but the result of methodological form analysis combined with the application of probability theory.
Our Computeform Visualiser shows you how we arrive at the Computeform ratings for each horse in each race. Starting with a rating that reflects our computerised handicapping system’s view of the horse’s current ability and adjusting it for the factors that will affect the expression of that level of ability in the upcoming race. The values we attribute to each factor are based on the scenario facing the horse relating to that factor in the upcoming race e.g. first time on soft ground, and derived from our analysis of the average effect of that scenario on performance in our database of hundreds of thousands of past performances.
The value price we attribute to each horse is based on the final Computeform rating. Simplistically, the bigger the difference between a horse’s Computeform rating and the highest Computeform rating in the race the longer its value price will be.
It’s a little more complicated than that in reality of course, because the spread of the Computeform ratings is reflected in the spread of the value prices. If for example, there are five horses within 2lb of the highest rated horse on the Computeform ratings in a race it will be a longer value price than if the nearest horse to the top rate is 7lb away.
Behind the scenes, we have quantified the probability of horses running a given number of pounds above or below their predicted rating in various race types by looking at hundreds of thousands of past performances on our database. When calculating the value prices we use this data to run what is known as a Monte Carlo simulation at the race.
A Monte Carlo simulation allows you to simulate an upcoming event many thousands of times to see how often each outcome occurs. In the case of a horse race, how often each horse wins. Each of our simulations randomly selects a value each horse will run above or below its Computeform rating from a sample that reflects the probability of each level of under/overperformance occurring. By recording the number of times each horse wins the many thousands of simulations we run we can calculate each horse’s win probability and hence value price based on its Computeform rating in the upcoming race and the likelihood of it and its rivals running above or below expectations.
The Racing App doesn’t only use this methodology to calculate value prices for our users from our view of each horse’s form, it also makes the tools available to those who feel inclined to do the same for themselves.
The Form Visualiser allows a user to adjust any of the values for the factors that affect an upcoming race and in so doing arrive at their own “Computeform” ratings for a race. Having done so, by clicking the Save and Recalculate button the app will run a Monte Carlo simulation using the Computeform values created by the user and generate the user’s own value prices. Those value prices are then displayed on the card if the user selects that option in the settings menu above the card.
In the knowledge that adjusting factor values requires study of form first, we have displayed Full Form beneath the Form Visualiser table. The Full Form allows users to change factor values within the form itself and for those changes to be captured in the Form Visualiser table.
So if you only want to know what we think is the best value bet in a race or want to decide for yourself which of the horses we think are overpriced or even want to calculate your own prices to find the value, The Racing App is unique in making this possible.

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